August 11, 2020: Control of the Senate and House of Representatives

Republicans control the Senate, while Democrats control the House of Representatives. Many measures involving government spending, including the Covid-19 emergency stimulus packages have to pass both houses, and for this reason, the latest stimulus package has been deadlocked. Approval of expenditures without consent of both legislative bodies and just an executive order authorizing funds can result in prolong legal battles.

Republicans would like to gain control of the House. Since all 435 representatives are up for election, this is possible. Democrats would like to hold their majority in the House and win control of the Senate. This is also possible. There are many forecasters trying hard to these elections. I particularly like www.270towin.com which has developed a consensus forecast and includes links to "pundits forecasts" - all of which are excellent and well established websites. I am partial to websites which provide maps and clear identify their forecasts. As we get closer to election, other sites will provide forecasts.

270 to Win Consensus Forecast for House Race

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Let me go first to the House race. Map shown above will automatically be updated when loaded, so it might not be accurate to this discussion. Many of the representatives seeking re-election will win, because their 2020 campaigns will be similar to their election in 2018, and the electorate will know their names, and the policies they support. The voter's decision can come down simply as a vote for Trump or against him. Yes, voting is expected along party lines. Right now, the split is 232 Democrats, 198 Republicans and 5 are either vacant or third party representatives. The 270towin website, predicts the election will result in 223 Democrats elected, 188 Republicans, and the remainder 24 are in the toss-up camp. So, they are basically predicting Democrats will continue to control the House, but in a tight race. If the toss-ups (24 EV's) and lean Democrats (28 EV's) end up being won by Republicans, then Republicans will be in the majority. A quick look at other forecasts shows Democrats solids to lean groups are in the range of 216 to 243 EV. For the 216 EV's, the Democrats would have to pick up two of the toss-up congressional districts to maintain their majority.

270 to Win Consensus Forecast for Senate Race

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Map shown above will automatically be updated when loaded so it might not be accurate to this discussion.

If you think the House race is tough to predict, the Senate race is going to be definitely down to the wire. Senators are elected to a six year term, so just 35 of the Senator's seats are up for election. Republicans hold 53 seats, and Democrats 45 seats and 2 independents. There are 23 seats held by Republicans and 12 seats held by Democrats up for re-election. So, this is why the Democrat Minority Leader of the Senate, Chuck Schumer, is leading the move to flip the Senate. The www.270towin.com consensus prediction, to this very important question, is really "who knows?" It's really that close, with a tally of 47 seats controlled by each party and only 6 seats in the toss-up group and 2 seats in the lean Democrat camp. I've checked the other websites, and the battle to control the Senate is definitely too close to call.

I do not provide any opinion in these highly contested races. However, if various groups within the US or outside want to influence US policies going forward, it is most likely they will hone in on the House and Senate toss-up candidates. The smaller Congressional Districts are particularly vulnerable because just a few thousand votes can change an election. I urge people to vote in this election by any means possible as it will be important.

The information above is as of August 10, 2020 and I will try to update this as we get closer to elections.

David Lord

Links:

I have not included many links as they can be easily found through search engines. Please let me know through the contacts form if some information is incorrect or other information should be included. In general, 270 to win is always adding to the "pundits" list, and currently they have electoral maps for Sabato's crystal ball, Cook's Report, Inside elections and Niskanen Center forecasts. The 270 to win is a great source of information which they let me share.

Wikipedia: House of Representative Elections and Senate Elections